Kentucky Derby Futures: Odds Movement in Vegas as Spring Beckons
We’re properly within the thick of prep season now for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve, and each the factors leaderboard standings and the roster of high contenders primarily based on ballot outcomes are in flux, triggered partially by the underwhelming return of 2023 champion juvenile Fierceness to the observe two weeks in the past within the Holy Bull Stakes and in addition to a level by a latest resolution from the Derby’s host observe.
Issues are about to alter, nevertheless, beginning this weekend. On Saturday, Feb. 17, Truthful Grounds will host the Risen Star Stakes, the primary prep race on Churchill Downs’ calendar that gives the highest 5 finishers 105 factors good for a down cost on a starting-gate berth within the 150th Derby on Might 4. After that, the schedule is essentially comprised of races both on the 105-point stage or, beginning in late March, contests that supply 200 qualifying factors to the highest 5 finishers. Meaning there’s no higher time than now to analysis and choose good overlays on the future-book sheets and put your cash down on a fixed-odds wager.
For the previous three months, Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas has been releasing weekly future books on the Kentucky Derby. Like many different bookmakers, Caesars has expanded its attain out into a number of different states after sports activities playing has change into authorized, together with Kentucky final fall the place it has partnered with Keeneland Race Course and The Crimson Mile harness observe in Lexington. Nonetheless, as of this writing, solely Caesars’ Nevada e-book is providing fixed-odds future wagers on the Kentucky Derby. The identical is true – once more, as of this writing – for different platforms that supply Derby futures and have launched within the Bluegrass state and elsewhere.
Along with the Vegas futures, Churchill Downs will open the fourth of six Kentucky Derby Future Wager swimming pools beginning on Friday, Feb. 16 at midday ET and shutting Sunday, Feb. 18. (Notably, this pool will shut previous to the beginning of the Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico, a minor Kentucky Derby factors prep on Sunday night.) Morning-line odds for the 40 entries within the pool start with “All Different 3-year-olds” at 2-1 and with Locked, winner of final fall’s Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and third within the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Offered by TAA, because the main particular person horses at 10-1.
Feb. 14 Caesars Sportsbook Odds Leaders to Win the 2024 Kentucky Derby:
1. Dornoch (8.5-1)
2. Sierra Leone (9.5-1)
3. Fierceness (10-1)
4. Monitor Phantom (12-1)
5. Locked (15-1)
Current developments: “Unsettled” is unquestionably the phrase du jour in Kentucky Derby future betting when it’s mid-February and the highest two decisions on the Vegas books haven’t made a begin in 2024. Sierra Leone is slated to return in Saturday’s Risen Star, whereas Dornoch is on faucet to make his 3-year-old debut within the Fountain of Youth Stakes March 2 at Gulfstream Park. There’s little question that each colts flashed the type of potential within the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes final December at Aqueduct that will get Derby dreamers excited; it was solely runner-up Sierra Leone’s second profession begin and Dornoch’s fourth. However getting present odds lower than 10-1 on the pair – and even 20-1 – makes one consider Taste Flav’s recommendation circa 1988 fairly than about plunking down some dough. We’ll know much more about these exceedingly well-bred runners in two weeks’ time. Sierra Leone specifically is dealing with a really powerful subject for his comeback.
The identical opinion goes double for Locked, who missed his deliberate return from winter break in final Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs as a consequence of an elevated temperature. As of this writing, his subsequent begin is to be decided, with coach Todd Pletcher telling Day by day Racing Type on Feb. 14 that he would have a firmer grasp of the place Locked would race after the colt breezed on Feb. 16. Conserving that in thoughts, 15-1 at Caesars and 10-1 opening Churchill’s pool are “leap of religion” odds exemplified.
From the group of 3-year-olds which have lately competed in Derby factors preps, Southwest Stakes first- and third-place finishers Mystik Dan and Liberal Arts catch the attention at odds of 85-1 and 75-1, respectively. Mystik Dan’s 110 Equibase Pace Determine earned in his eight-length win at Oaklawn Park is spectacular even when it could have been slop-aided, and if it certainly establishes a brand new baseline for his future races (which is, after all, to be decided), then 85-1 odds for Derby day is properly well worth the gamble. As for Liberal Arts, that Arrogate colt made his first begin within the Feb. 3 Southwest since late October of final 12 months, when he received the Avenue Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs. He was stepping into gear late at Oaklawn Park and will transfer ahead from that effort in his remaining Derby prep, slated to be the Arkansas Derby. Mystik Dan opens at 20-1 in Churchill Downs’ upcoming Derby pool and Liberal Arts is 60-1.
(Simply Metal, runner-up within the Southwest Stakes in addition to the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn again on New Yr’s Day, is getting 75-1 at Caesars and opens at 80-1 at Churchill. I determine that D. Wayne Lukas will “coach” this runner any and each method doable to make the 150th Derby subject. I additionally suppose Simply Metal will finally have his best success as a sprinter-miler.)
Of be aware: Perhaps the most important motive the Kentucky Derby image appears blurry on all ranges proper now could be that turf writers, odds makers, bettors, and followers are nonetheless adjusting to the 1-2 punch of Churchill Downs reaffirming its stance to ban Bob Baffert-trained horses from competing within the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Baffert’s homeowners collectively telling the Central Ave. behemoth, “OK, then,” and protecting all of their Derby hopefuls with the SoCal lightning rod. Unbeaten Nysos, who dominated his 3-year-old bow within the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park, would simply lead all present fixed-odds future books because it stands proper now and possibly be a morning-line Derby tout in Churchill’s Feb. 16-19 pool within the vary of 6-1 as properly, if eligible. Baffert trainees Muth and Maymun – the latter a late-developing two-time winner already in 2024 – would additionally rank excessive. As an alternative, there’s shaping as much as be a Baffert-sized black gap on this 12 months’s Kentucky Derby lineup, and it will likely be fascinating to see if any horse primarily based in Southern California and educated by another person comes out of Santa Anita Park’s remaining two prep races to safe a starting-gate berth in Derby 150.
4 to think about:
Capital Thought: This Basic Empire colt almost received his debut going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct again in December, ending third by a half-length. He took to a sloppy observe on the Massive A with relish in his second begin Jan. 28, closing with a sustained drive in midstretch to win by 8 ¼ lengths for proprietor Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and coach Christophe Clement. In my first Derby Futures weblog for 2023-24, I highlighted Clement-trained Otello as a contender to observe and probably make a future wager on, and felt validated when that colt received the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Yr’s Day. Otello didn’t progress, nevertheless, in his second begin of 2024 and was not an element within the Holy Bull. Maybe Capital Thought may give Clement one other shot on the Derby; he’s received an honest pedigree for dealing with extra distance being out of a Distorted Humor mare that received at 1 1/16 miles and with a second dam (maternal grandmother) who received a Grade 3 stakes at a mile. Presently, he’s pegged at 125-1 odds on Caesars’ e-book, and opens at 80-1 Friday in Churchill Downs’ pool.
Good Cash: He’s received a whole lot of maturing to do in a brief period of time to make the Kentucky Derby, however this Chad Brown trainee impressed in his first outing Jan. 26 at Tampa Bay Downs, stalking the tempo early, shifting out from an inside path coming into the flip, after which putting the entrance in midstretch and protecting an odds-on favourite at bay to win a seven-furlong dash by a size. Good Cash is a son of Brown-trained Good Magic, a champion at age 2, runner-up within the 2018 Derby at age 3, and now a sire of a Derby winner in final 12 months’s hero Mage. Like Capital Thought, this colt is out of a Distorted Humor mare, on this case one who didn’t race. Nonetheless, his third dam (maternal great-grandmother) is a half-sister to Belmont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil, making Good Cash a member of a feminine household wealthy in stamina (final 12 months’s Belmont Stakes winner Arcangelo is also a relative). Price contemplating at 150-1 odds by way of Caesars.
Goldbrick and Crushed It: This pair completed 1-2 in a one-mile maiden race on a sloppy observe Jan. 5 at Oaklawn Park and are listed at odds of 125-1 and 100-1, respectively, by Caesars. They had been clearly the perfect within the 1 1/16-mile take a look at, ending 8 ½ lengths away from the third-place horse. Crushed It, favored at 9-10, set a pressured tempo and stored on gamely after dispatching the longshot that had stored him firm, whereas 5-2 second selection Goldbrick had an ideal journey in third by means of the backstretch, saving floor underneath Francisco Arrieta, earlier than shifting as much as interact Crushed It in midstretch after which prevailing by a neck. This race was Goldbrick’s fourth profession begin and second at Oaklawn, and it was Crushed It’s second look on the Sizzling Springs, Ark., observe and first going two turns after he additionally completed second by a neck in his six-furlong debut final December.
Crushed It’s getting extra help on Caesars’ newest Derby future e-book – 100-1 vs. Goldbrick at 125-1 – and that appears applicable since he’s educated by Brad Cox for longtime consumer Richard Klein. The colt is by Florida Derby winner Dialed Out and in of the a number of stakes-winning mare Pinch Hit, by Harlan’s Vacation, who was additionally owned and bred by the Klein household and was a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Goldbrick is by Santa Anita Derby and two-time Breeders’ Cup Filth Mile winner Goldencents and is a half-brother (identical dam [mother], completely different sire [father]) to millionaire router Mr. Wi-fi (notably sired by Dialed In). Goldbrick doesn’t have a printed exercise for coach Bret Calhoun since his win in early January, whereas Crushed It has a few breezes at Oaklawn on his ledger for Cox.
Of be aware: Two Steve Asmussen trainees – Valentine Sweet and Sales space – ran lights out at Oaklawn lately, however as of now the Corridor of Famer appears to be taking a affected person method with them in regard to trying extra distance. Valentine Sweet (125-1 at Caesars) has received three dash stakes in a row, most lately the Feb. 1 Ozark Stakes by 2 ½ lengths, and seems to be established on that observe going ahead, although he’s sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Sales space (150-1), who first made waves with a blowout maiden win at Keeneland final fall, made his first begin since a November dud at Churchill Downs on Feb. 11 in a six-furlong allowance-optional claiming race. He was very spectacular off the bench, rolling to a 4 ¼-length rating. Asmussen informed Oaklawn Park’s media workplace that he would take into account stretching Sales space out in his subsequent begin and would maintain the 2 runners – who’re owned by partnerships with most of the identical members in widespread – separate. This colt is a son of Asmussen-trained champion sprinter Mitole and is a relative of champion sprinter and Corridor of Fame member Housebuster on his dam’s facet, so maybe his most believable path to greatness will probably be capped at one flip as properly. In the meantime, Asmussen’s colt Corridor of Fame is sitting at 18-1 on Caesars’ newest sheet, and coming off of a blowout maiden win is primed for a category hike within the Risen Star. Proper now, these odds are method out of whack for this ambitiously named son of Gun Runner. We’ll see if that adjustments Saturday.
