Five Questions to be Answered in the 2024 Risen Star Stakes
The depth and high quality of the 12 3-year-olds entered for Saturday’s $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Honest Grounds is by far the strongest to this point on the Street to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve. It is sensible contemplating the Risen Star is the primary race of the Championship Sequence of qualifying races and is one among 14 stakes that rewards the winner with both 50 or 100 factors, primarily guaranteeing the victor a spot within the beginning gate Could 4 at Churchill Downs.
The Grade 2 Risen Star awards Kentucky Derby qualifying factors on a 50-25-15-10-5 foundation to the highest 5 finishers and the 1 1/8-mile race drew 5 3-year-olds who’ve received or positioned on the graded stakes stage and 7 who’ve received or positioned on the stakes stage.
Listed here are 5 questions that have to be answered within the 2024 Risen Star Stakes …
1. How near 100% are the horses coming back from an prolonged break within the Risen Star?
Honor Marie has not raced since profitable the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes by two lengths Nov. 25 at Churchill Downs. Likewise, Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes runner-up Actual Males Violin and Grade 2 Remsen Stakes runner-up Sierra Leone shall be making their first begins in 12 weeks and 11 weeks, respectively, and Remsen fourth-place finisher Moonlight has additionally been off since that Dec. 2 race. All 4 have proven potential, however the months on the finish of a 2-year-old season and early in a 3-year-old marketing campaign are essential by way of the bodily and psychological maturation of a Thoroughbred racehorse. Fairly merely, so much can change in three months. Add in the truth that trainers of gifted 3-year-olds are aiming to attain a peak efficiency on the primary Saturday in Could, not the third Saturday in February, and it’s straightforward to know why this group muddles the Risen Star forecast.
Traditionally, profitable the Risen Star off an extended layoff is a tall order. Keeler Johnson famous that 15 of the final 16 winners raced in January or February and completed within the high 4, whereas solely Gun Runner in 2016 received the Risen Star off a layoff of seven weeks or extra.
2. How good is buzz horse Corridor of Fame? Coach Steve Asmussen entered two horses within the Risen Star, together with Gun Runner Stakes and Lecomte Stakes winner Observe Phantom, who figures to vie for favoritism. His different runner, Corridor of Fame, additionally ought to be well-supported within the wagering primarily based on a dominant 10 ¼-length romp on this monitor when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 20. The 94 Beyer Velocity Determine the chestnut colt by Gun Runner earned is one of the best on this subject and his 97 Equibase Velocity Determine and 91 Brisnet velocity score additionally had been wonderful for a 3-year-old in his second race and first attempt navigating two turns. Corridor of Fame’s profitable time of 1:44.27 was nearly a half-second sooner than Observe Phantom’s time for profitable the Lecomte Stakes on the similar 1 1/16-mile distance eight races later that day at Honest Grounds. Corridor of Fame seems like a critical racehorse, however a part of what makes this version of the Risen Star so thrilling is that he’s not the one thrilling prospect making his stakes debut.
3. Are there another potential breakout candidates within the Risen Star? Cardinale, Resilience, and Bee Dancer – just like the above-mentioned Corridor of Fame – all will step up at school for his or her first attempt in a stakes race after flashing potential in latest begins. Bee Dancer may very well be any type of racehorse after profitable his debut by a size Jan. 20 at Honest Grounds, however he’s stretching out from three-quarters of a mile to 1 1/8 miles and drew the disadvantageous outdoors publish. Cardinale enters off a second to Change of Command in a 1 1/16-mile race the place he improved each his Equibase and Beyer Velocity Figures considerably. That race was not flattered, nonetheless, final weekend when Change of Command completed eleventh of 12 within the Sam F. Davis Stakes. That brings us to Resilience. Educated by Corridor of Famer Invoice Mott, the Into Mischief colt follows a path just like the one Modernist used to win a division of the 2020 Risen Star. Each received maiden races in January at different tracks for Mott and shipped in for the Risen Star off promising wins. Equibase handicapper Ellis Starr made Resilience his high decide and Corridor of Fame his third selection.
4. Will Observe Phantom face any early strain this time? Observe Phantom set an uncontested tempo within the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes Jan. 20 and had loads of stamina in reserve in coasting to a 2 ¾-length runaway. The Risen Star didn’t entice a ton of speedy sorts, however Cardinale has proven velocity in each his races and Corridor of Fame was distinguished early in his latest win. Likewise, Bee Dancer raced close to the tempo in his debut sprinting, so there may very well be firm for Observe Phantom. The excellent news for the Lecomte winner’s supporters is that he has proven the power to charge off the tempo and win, as he did within the Gun Runner Stakes. He’s no one-trick pony.
5. Which horse can boost the exacta or trifecta at a giant value? I discussed earlier the 4 runners coming off prolonged layoffs: Honor Marie, Actual Males Violin, Sierra Leone, and Moonlight. For my part, the primary three are within the mildew of these 3-year-olds that trainers plan to ramp up slowly. Moonlight, for my part, is going through extra of a prove-it second for Corridor of Fame coach Todd Pletcher, who has received this race 3 times. Pletcher, who additionally entered Cardinale, has not missed a exercise with Moonlight since he obtained again to critical coaching Jan. 4. He is obtained a pleasant string of six exercises, and the final two have been fairly sharp so I’m anticipating him to be prepared. I feel he’s bred for this 1 1/8-mile distance and his 12-1 odds imply you’ll be rewarded should you again him and he runs nicely.
Mike’s Superfecta: 1. Corridor of Fame, 2. Moonlight, 3. Sierra Leone, 4. Observe Phantom
